Predicting Disease Outbreaks Using Environmental Changes

Below is a press release about the Methods paper ‘Environmental-mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: a case study of Lassa fever‘ taken from the University College London.

The multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) transmits Lassa virus to humans. ©Kelly, et al.

The multimammate rat transmits Lassa virus to humans. ©Kelly, et al.

A model that predicts outbreaks of zoonotic diseases – those originating in livestock or wildlife such as Ebola and Zika – based on changes in climate, population growth and land use has been developed by a UCL-led team of researchers.

“This model is a major improvement in our understanding of the spread of diseases from animals to people. We hope it can be used to help communities prepare and respond to disease outbreaks, as well as to make decisions about environmental change factors that may be within their control,” said lead author Professor Kate Jones, UCL Genetics, Evolution & Environment and the Zoological Society of London. Continue reading