Throughout March and April, we are featuring articles shortlisted for the 2024 Robert May Prize. The Robert May Prize is awarded by the British Ecological Society each year for the best paper in Methods in Ecology and Evolution written by an early career author. Grace Ridder’s article ‘Generating spatially realistic environmental null models with the shift-&-rotate approach helps evaluate false positives in species distribution modelling‘ is one of those shortlisted for the award.

The paper

What is your shortlisted paper about, and what are you seeking to answer with your research?  

Many of the standard tools used to test species-environment associations are based on unrealistic simulated predictors which can lead to inflated positive associations. This paper introduces spatially realistic null models, called the shift-&-rotate approach, that allow researchers to better understand what role their predictor variables play in their models and how significant they may truly be. 

Were you surprised by anything when working on it?  Did you have any challenges to overcome? 

The project started as a MSc thesis project aiming at testing the role of climate variables on the distribution of tree species in Central Africa. However, we were soon surprised at how large of an effect space seemed to play in our model and how little we knew about the effects of the environmental predictors due to their spatially structured nature. Thus, we shifted our entire focus to overcoming this challenge instead of reporting possibly inaccurate results. 

What is the next step in this field going to be?  

The shift-&-rotate approach was applied to one particular class of species distribution models, called “Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities”, but it can be applied to verify the reliability of many other modelling approaches, and could also be confronted to alternative testing methods, like “Moran Spectral Randomizations. 

What are the broader impacts or implications of your research for policy or practice?   

How will a changing climate affect our ecosystems and how certain can we be about our predictions? Our method will allow scientists to evaluate more accurately the limits of their predictive models, which will enable policy makers to make more informed decisions. 

The author

How did you get involved in ecology?  

I grew up on a rural farm in Eastern Oregon. Over the years, I watched one patch of land evolve and change from season to season and year to year. Harsh winters, or new residents impacted the farm in many ways and it sparked my curiosity for how different parts of an ecosystem interact and for the study of ecology in general.  

What is your current position? 

I am currently a PhD student at Charles University in Prague.

Have you continued the research your paper is about? 

My PhD is centered around large-scale patterns in ecology and evolution. There are many similar elements in my current work but it is less centered around species distribution modelling.  

What one piece of advice would you give to someone in your field?  

It’s a tricky time to be a scientist. Try to hold on tight to your curiosity.